/Black Swan Event

The term black swan event is a metaphor that describes an event that appears extremely unlikely beforehand, comes as a surprise and has a major effect. Black swan events are statistically virtually impossible within linear systems but do occur in nonlinear systems because of their capacity to generate long-tail distributions where extremely large events are much more likely. However, these extremely large events are typically not accounted for when using linear thinking and thus come as extreme surprises.



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